Question bank

test canada-probability-v2-164

A traveller is making a 354 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 155.80, 56 minutes in the vehicle, 97 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 9.
Train: cost 59.00, 237 minutes in the vehicle, 69 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 27.34, 301 minutes in the vehicle, 68 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 67.26, 231 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.23, "car": 0.3}	error 0.68
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.243, "train": 0.317, "bus": 0.194, "car": 0.246}	error 0.766
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.1, "train": 0.3, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.52}	error 0.337

test canada-probability-v2-192

A traveller is making a 380 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 154.20, 56 minutes in the vehicle, 104 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 9.
Train: cost 62.85, 237 minutes in the vehicle, 112 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 31.67, 301 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 72.20, 265 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.234, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.351, "car": 0.224}	error 0.797
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.32, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.48}	error 0.713

test canada-probability-v2-420

A traveller is making a 179 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 136.20, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 135 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 25.
Train: cost 40.50, 92 minutes in the vehicle, 90 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 25.70, 265 minutes in the vehicle, 55 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Car: cost 34.01, 133 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.13, "car": 0.3}	error 0.724
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.421, "train": 0.234, "bus": 0.173, "car": 0.172}	error 0.948
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.65}	error 0.19
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.14, "train": 0.24, "bus": 0.06, "car": 0.56}	error 0.274

test canada-probability-v2-533

A traveller is making a 553 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 181.50, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 145 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 84.40, 367 minutes in the vehicle, 109 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 42.05, 433 minutes in the vehicle, 62 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 6.
Car: cost 105.07, 359 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.32, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.626
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.235, "train": 0.141, "bus": 0.104, "car": 0.52}	error 0.886
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 1.31
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.2, "train": 0.18, "bus": 0.07, "car": 0.55}	error 0.98

test canada-probability-v2-620

A traveller is making a 125 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 122.90, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 119 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 25.
Train: cost 34.50, 92 minutes in the vehicle, 70 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 11.73, 109 minutes in the vehicle, 60 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 23.75, 101 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.4}	error 0.525
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.317, "bus": 0.246, "car": 0.206}	error 0.845
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.4}	error 0.575
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.03, "train": 0.22, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.65}	error 0.182

test canada-probability-v2-677

A traveller is making a 188 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 132.50, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 25.
Train: cost 38.65, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 65 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 12.
Bus: cost 17.57, 152 minutes in the vehicle, 70 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 12.
Car: cost 35.72, 139 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.35}	error 0.45
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.315, "bus": 0.246, "car": 0.208}	error 0.626
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.6}	error 0.935
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.02, "train": 0.3, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.58}	error 0.837

test canada-probability-v2-732

A traveller is making a 188 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 29.
Air: cost 132.50, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 25.
Train: cost 38.65, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 65 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 12.
Bus: cost 17.57, 152 minutes in the vehicle, 70 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 12.
Car: cost 35.72, 139 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.45}	error 0.646
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.15, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.3}	error 0.575
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 0.51
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.07, "car": 0.49}	error 0.722

test canada-probability-v2-853

A traveller is making a 573 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 172.10, 96 minutes in the vehicle, 90 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Train: cost 89.50, 434 minutes in the vehicle, 80 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 2.
Bus: cost 42.10, 515 minutes in the vehicle, 75 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 108.87, 381 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.766
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.341, "car": 0.237}	error 0.788
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.22, "train": 0.24, "bus": 0.07, "car": 0.47}	error 0.392

test canada-probability-v2-880

A traveller is making a 605 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 55.
Air: cost 165.70, 96 minutes in the vehicle, 75 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Train: cost 87.50, 434 minutes in the vehicle, 69 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 2.
Bus: cost 43.30, 515 minutes in the vehicle, 67 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 114.95, 407 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.766
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.143, "car": 0.442}	error 0.419
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.3, "train": 0.13, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.47}	error 0.398

test canada-probability-v2-1454

A traveller is making a 440 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 150.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 71.60, 350 minutes in the vehicle, 79 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 32.45, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 72 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 83.60, 309 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.35, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.293, "car": 0.292}	error 0.89
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.22
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.65, "train": 0.05, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.25}	error 1.39

test canada-probability-v2-1468

A traveller is making a 440 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 150.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 71.60, 350 minutes in the vehicle, 79 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 32.45, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 72 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 83.60, 309 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.15, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.4, "car": 0.2}	error 0.985
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.315, "car": 0.263}	error 0.796
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.52, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.14, "car": 0.24}	error 0.318

test canada-probability-v2-1482

A traveller is making a 440 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 150.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 71.60, 350 minutes in the vehicle, 79 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 32.45, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 72 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 83.60, 309 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.15, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.3, "car": 0.2}	error 0.975
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.293, "car": 0.292}	error 0.796
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.31, "train": 0.07, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.54}	error 0.779

test canada-probability-v2-1510

A traveller is making a 440 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 150.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 71.60, 350 minutes in the vehicle, 79 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 32.45, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 72 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 83.60, 309 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.15, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.3, "car": 0.2}	error 0.975
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.341, "car": 0.237}	error 0.8
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.58, "train": 0.06, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.28}	error 0.265

test canada-probability-v2-1524

A traveller is making a 450 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 151.50, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 73.30, 350 minutes in the vehicle, 80 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 32.25, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 75 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 85.50, 322 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.28, "car": 0.25}	error 1.04
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.283, "car": 0.302}	error 0.797
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.32, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.16, "car": 0.42}	error 0.674

test canada-probability-v2-1609

A traveller is making a 557 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 180.05, 69 minutes in the vehicle, 91 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 45.
Train: cost 72.60, 370 minutes in the vehicle, 67 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 33.66, 370 minutes in the vehicle, 68 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 105.83, 365 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.42, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.15}	error 0.46
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.305, "bus": 0.235, "car": 0.229}	error 0.792
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.09, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.48}	error 0.779

test canada-probability-v2-1624

A traveller is making a 571 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 25.
Air: cost 179.50, 69 minutes in the vehicle, 100 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 45.
Train: cost 74.60, 370 minutes in the vehicle, 85 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Bus: cost 35.61, 370 minutes in the vehicle, 85 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 108.49, 372 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.341, "car": 0.237}	error 0.8
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.6, "train": 0.07, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.28}	error 0.246

test canada-probability-v2-1658

A traveller is making a 934 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 209.90, 84 minutes in the vehicle, 111 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 4.
Train: cost 112.10, 534 minutes in the vehicle, 134 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 2.
Bus: cost 56.57, 629 minutes in the vehicle, 105 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 6.
Car: cost 177.46, 615 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.315, "car": 0.263}	error 0.796
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.45, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.25}	error 0.43
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.5, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.28}	error 0.353

test canada-probability-v2-1734

A traveller is making a 396 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 164.90, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 66.40, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 110 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 31.55, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 100 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 75.24, 266 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.18, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.25, "car": 0.25}	error 0.76
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.143, "car": 0.442}	error 0.419
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 0.51
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.47, "train": 0.14, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.31}	error 0.723

test canada-probability-v2-1801

A traveller is making a 545 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 188.45, 69 minutes in the vehicle, 83 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 45.
Train: cost 71.20, 304 minutes in the vehicle, 87 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 33.96, 370 minutes in the vehicle, 88 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 7.
Car: cost 103.55, 349 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.3, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.2}	error 0.575
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.341, "train": 0.243, "bus": 0.161, "car": 0.255}	error 0.584
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 1.31
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.7, "train": 0.07, "bus": 0.03, "car": 0.2}	error 0.136

test canada-probability-v2-1841

A traveller is making a 254 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 25.
Air: cost 155.90, 60 minutes in the vehicle, 118 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 6.
Train: cost 43.35, 109 minutes in the vehicle, 75 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 25.63, 183 minutes in the vehicle, 95 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 48.26, 181 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.3}	error 0.735
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.305, "bus": 0.231, "car": 0.233}	error 0.788
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.4}	error 0.575
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.17, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.45}	error 0.42

test canada-probability-v2-1910

A traveller is making a 345 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 55.
Air: cost 165.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 131 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 59.35, 223 minutes in the vehicle, 65 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 31.37, 299 minutes in the vehicle, 69 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 1.
Car: cost 65.55, 240 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.401, "train": 0.305, "bus": 0.194, "car": 0.1}	error 0.499
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 1.31
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.07, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.55}	error 1.26

test canada-probability-v2-1938

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 55.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.2}	error 0.765
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.341, "train": 0.243, "bus": 0.235, "car": 0.181}	error 0.777
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.29
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.11, "train": 0.31, "bus": 0.11, "car": 0.47}	error 0.721

test canada-probability-v2-1966

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.57
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.301, "train": 0.231, "bus": 0.191, "car": 0.277}	error 0.655
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.38, "train": 0.18, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.32}	error 0.534

test canada-probability-v2-2008

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 30.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.3, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.15}	error 0.575
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.401, "train": 0.305, "bus": 0.194, "car": 0.1}	error 0.499
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.12, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.65}	error 1.31

test canada-probability-v2-2036

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.57
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.301, "train": 0.231, "bus": 0.191, "car": 0.277}	error 0.655
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.38, "train": 0.18, "bus": 0.11, "car": 0.33}	error 0.538

test canada-probability-v2-2049

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.22, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.35}	error 0.712
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.301, "train": 0.231, "bus": 0.191, "car": 0.277}	error 0.655
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.27, "train": 0.14, "bus": 0.07, "car": 0.52}	error 0.828

test canada-probability-v2-2063

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.2}	error 0.565
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.341, "train": 0.243, "bus": 0.194, "car": 0.222}	error 0.58
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.16, "train": 0.3, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.44}	error 0.999

test canada-probability-v2-2147

A traveller is making a 417 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 163.10, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 98 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 62.55, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 74 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.27, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 79.23, 278 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.35, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.25}	error 0.77
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.301, "train": 0.231, "bus": 0.191, "car": 0.277}	error 0.703
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.4, "train": 0.18, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.3}	error 0.697

test canada-probability-v2-2396

A traveller is making a 422 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 153.50, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 85 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 64.40, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 75 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 31.60, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 82 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 80.18, 285 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.421, "train": 0.234, "bus": 0.173, "car": 0.172}	error 0.45
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.27, "train": 0.12, "bus": 0.13, "car": 0.48}	error 0.795

test canada-probability-v2-2620

A traveller is making a 280 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 154.55, 60 minutes in the vehicle, 110 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 6.
Train: cost 49.40, 148 minutes in the vehicle, 103 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Bus: cost 25.71, 183 minutes in the vehicle, 103 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 53.20, 199 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.18, "car": 0.25}	error 0.812
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.221, "train": 0.353, "bus": 0.264, "car": 0.162}	error 0.945
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.4}	error 0.575
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.18, "car": 0.42}	error 0.462

test canada-probability-v2-2634

A traveller is making a 428 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 161.75, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 100 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 64.40, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 99 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 32.35, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 95 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 81.32, 293 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.28, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.22, "car": 0.15}	error 0.712
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.105, "bus": 0.235, "car": 0.429}	error 0.842
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 1.49
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.3, "train": 0.12, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.5}	error 0.761

test canada-probability-v2-2753

A traveller is making a 443 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 161.50, 58 minutes in the vehicle, 105 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 36.
Train: cost 66.40, 263 minutes in the vehicle, 117 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 36.60, 290 minutes in the vehicle, 102 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 10.
Car: cost 84.17, 313 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.18, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.22, "car": 0.25}	error 0.906
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.513, "train": 0.211, "bus": 0.157, "car": 0.119}	error 0.321
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.45}	error 1.31
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.55, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.27}	error 0.292

test canada-probability-v2-3328

A traveller is making a 201 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 128.90, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 95 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 15.
Train: cost 38.20, 132 minutes in the vehicle, 79 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 18.80, 140 minutes in the vehicle, 77 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 18.
Car: cost 38.19, 134 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.35, "car": 0.25}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.245, "bus": 0.305, "car": 0.219}	error 0.764
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.6}	error 0.935
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.52}	error 0.81

test canada-probability-v2-3342

A traveller is making a 215 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 127.80, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 94 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 15.
Train: cost 39.20, 132 minutes in the vehicle, 84 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 20.00, 140 minutes in the vehicle, 87 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 18.
Car: cost 40.85, 141 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.25, "car": 0.35}	error 0.718
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.315, "bus": 0.252, "car": 0.202}	error 0.627
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.22
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.25, "bus": 0.15, "car": 0.55}	error 0.89

test canada-probability-v2-3356

A traveller is making a 152 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 125.60, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 15.
Train: cost 39.85, 113 minutes in the vehicle, 82 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 18.00, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 82 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 18.
Car: cost 28.88, 101 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.22, "bus": 0.25, "car": 0.45}	error 0.42
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.235, "car": 0.35}	error 0.565
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.4}	error 0.575
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.13, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.62}	error 0.204

test canada-probability-v2-3369

A traveller is making a 315 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 126.30, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 140 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 15.
Train: cost 47.20, 132 minutes in the vehicle, 129 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 20.00, 140 minutes in the vehicle, 117 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 18.
Car: cost 59.85, 209 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.35, "car": 0.25}	error 0.778
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.235, "car": 0.35}	error 0.565
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.45, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.4}	error 0.575
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.15, "train": 0.17, "bus": 0.23, "car": 0.45}	error 0.407

test canada-probability-v2-3502

A traveller is making a 213 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 134.55, 40 minutes in the vehicle, 103 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 15.
Train: cost 43.70, 132 minutes in the vehicle, 90 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 5.
Bus: cost 16.30, 140 minutes in the vehicle, 70 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 18.
Car: cost 40.47, 142 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.22, "car": 0.35}	error 0.6
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.191, "bus": 0.341, "car": 0.237}	error 0.788
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.14, "train": 0.05, "bus": 0.08, "car": 0.73}	error 0.101

test canada-probability-v2-3594

A traveller is making a 229 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 55.
Air: cost 155.30, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 155 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 45.80, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 155 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 16.36, 115 minutes in the vehicle, 110 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 43.51, 193 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.22, "car": 0.35}	error 0.6
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.401, "train": 0.211, "bus": 0.264, "car": 0.124}	error 1.04
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.1, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.25, "car": 0.5}	error 0.345

test canada-probability-v2-3786

A traveller is making a 221 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 137.30, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 86 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 45.45, 193 minutes in the vehicle, 73 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 23.61, 186 minutes in the vehicle, 69 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 24.
Car: cost 41.99, 148 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.22, "bus": 0.35, "car": 0.35}	error 1.14
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.051, "train": 0.104, "bus": 0.293, "car": 0.552}	error 1.3
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 1.42
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.25, "train": 0.1, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.55}	error 0.885

test canada-probability-v2-3960

A traveller is making a 317 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 151.85, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 120 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 47.60, 193 minutes in the vehicle, 92 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 27.01, 186 minutes in the vehicle, 93 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 24.
Car: cost 60.23, 215 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.28, "car": 0.25}	error 0.778
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.193, "train": 0.235, "bus": 0.373, "car": 0.199}	error 0.873
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.12, "car": 0.48}	error 0.394

test canada-probability-v2-3987

A traveller is making a 223 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 35.
Air: cost 143.40, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 88 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 43.35, 166 minutes in the vehicle, 65 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 25.01, 186 minutes in the vehicle, 71 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 24.
Car: cost 42.37, 150 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.08, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.22, "car": 0.35}	error 0.6
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.315, "bus": 0.251, "car": 0.203}	error 0.851
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.11, "train": 0.32, "bus": 0.14, "car": 0.43}	error 0.459

test canada-probability-v2-4020

A traveller is making a 132 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is in an urban area, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 153.30, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 160 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 30.10, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 67 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 15.56, 115 minutes in the vehicle, 69 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 25.08, 94 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.4}	error 0.525
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.051, "train": 0.231, "bus": 0.271, "car": 0.447}	error 0.435
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.14, "bus": 0.11, "car": 0.7}	error 0.124

test canada-probability-v2-4119

A traveller is making a 139 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 151.65, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 168 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 32.10, 120 minutes in the vehicle, 70 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 14.56, 115 minutes in the vehicle, 59 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 8.
Car: cost 26.41, 95 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.2, "car": 0.4}	error 0.525
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.373, "car": 0.212}	error 0.847
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.04, "train": 0.12, "bus": 0.09, "car": 0.75}	error 0.0866

test canada-probability-v2-4282

A traveller is making a 316 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 70.
Air: cost 155.30, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 110 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 56.60, 193 minutes in the vehicle, 105 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 26.96, 186 minutes in the vehicle, 95 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 24.
Car: cost 60.04, 236 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.35, "bus": 0.28, "car": 0.25}	error 0.778
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.231, "train": 0.184, "bus": 0.421, "car": 0.164}	error 0.963
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.05, "car": 0.75}	error 0.09
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.2, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.13, "car": 0.52}	error 0.31

test canada-probability-v2-4307

A traveller is making a 266 km intercity trip in the Montreal-Toronto corridor. The trip is not marked as urban, and the traveller's household income category is 45.
Air: cost 155.30, 46 minutes in the vehicle, 140 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 16.
Train: cost 57.60, 193 minutes in the vehicle, 125 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 3.
Bus: cost 27.96, 186 minutes in the vehicle, 115 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 24.
Car: cost 50.54, 179 minutes in the vehicle, 0 minutes outside the vehicle, and a service frequency of 0. Estimate choice probabilities for air, train, bus and car. Return a JSON object with exactly these four keys, each between 0 and 1, summing to 1. This is the historical evaluation subsample, not population mode shares.
Give your best estimate even if you are uncertain. Return only a JSON object mapping each of air, train, bus, car to its probability; the probabilities must sum to 1. Do not return null and do not add explanations.

Model	Answer given
Gemma 4	{"air": 0.12, "train": 0.28, "bus": 0.35, "car": 0.25}	error 0.778
Llama 3.3	{"air": 0.191, "train": 0.045, "bus": 0.341, "car": 0.423}	error 0.488
Qwen · off	{"air": 0.05, "train": 0.15, "bus": 0.1, "car": 0.7}	error 0.125
Qwen · on	{"air": 0.07, "train": 0.08, "bus": 0.25, "car": 0.6}	error 0.234